In the November 19 press release announcing the laudable Regional Housing Coalition, the City of Columbus referred to the urgency of the “housing supply crisis.”

Not the “housing crisis,” but specifically the “housing supply crisis.”

However, deliberately characterizing the persistent housing precarity faced by millions of Americans for decades and decades as purely a crisis of quantity is misleading. Of course supply is absolutely essential—there’s no denying that in order for people to have access to stable and secure housing, it must also be abundant. But a public policy discourse hyper-focused on private supply generally relies on deregulation as the only path forward. There are some notable exceptions to this, like Shane Phillips’ approach of supply, subsidy, and stability in his book The Affordable City.

However, many of the policies that impact housing stability are not housing policy, per se.

Consider the many parts of life that contribute to continuing instability and inequality in housing. Persistent wage stagnation, for example, is seldom discussed. The mortgage interest deduction, as a demand-side tax policy benefiting high-income earners and inflating the market, is rarely discussed. And when supply dominates discourse, the absolute power of property owners to raise rents and evict tenants without just cause is rarely discussed.

This post offers a brief interrogation of supply-side narratives in two parts. First, a look at the curiously high number of vacant housing units in Franklin County. Second, exploring the impact of short-term rentals on housing supply in Columbus.

When we are bombarded with news of the region’s housing shortage, the topic of vacant housing doesn’t usually come to mind.

To casual observers, the finding that Central Ohio needs “14,000 to 19,000 housing units each year…to keep up with growth” is plausible. Yet, this estimate might make readers think we’re starting from the baseline that there are no vacant or available housing units for people to live in. The data, however, shows quite the contrary.

According to a 2015 study, our region needed approximately 54,000 housing units to meet demand some nine years ago.

Again, we obviously need housing. But where? On farmland? In the Darby Creek watershed? (One of the most biologically diverse aquatic systems in the Midwest, home to 38 state and federally listed aquatic species). The primary goal of homebuilders is to build homes, not to build homes in locations that make sense in the context of a climate emergency, a crisis of walkability, income segregation, or social isolation. That’s where regulation and public policy can make a difference—by guiding the market to achieve more socially optimal outcomes.

What if there were thousands of housing units sitting right under our nose? According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are.

Data from 2022 shows an estimated 44,660 vacant housing units in Franklin County. An analysis of the previous decade of data also shows tens of thousands of vacant housing units in Franklin County. And let’s say that data is a bit inflated, for whatever reason. Perhaps there’s only half of that: 22,330. If there are 22,330 vacant housing units in Franklin County, then we’d need tens of thousands fewer new homes built to make a dent in the “supply” crisis.

Source: ACS 2021, 5-Year Estimates; U.S. Census Bureau; SocialExplorer

Armed with a less urgent imperative, the nature of the policies proposed to address the housing crisis would change.

Source: Table B25131, ACS 2023 (1-Year Estimates),
U.S. Census Bureau; SocialExplorer

According to city officials, there are 3,500 vacant homes (I’m unsure if that means housing units) within the city of Columbus.

This is far fewer than the 31,573 reported in the ACS 2021 5-Year data by the U.S. Census Bureau. Indeed, there are varying degrees of vacancy status. Many homes are likely not habitable, meeting the typical “vacant and abandoned” descriptor. Many are currently for rent. Some could be seasonal residences occupied for part of the year. Others could be tied up in legal limbo. Many are likely in neighborhoods the city might call “ready for opportunity,” rather than “market ready.”

It’s also important to contextualize these vacancy figures by acknowledging that Central Ohio is undergoing the most significant population growth in the state. Across Ohio, there are shrinking communities that would be thrilled by the prospect of new residents buying vacant homes and fixing them up, as detailed in a report about Ohio’s potential to invest in ‘heritage homes.’

Now for the second point of the supply discussion.

On top of this hidden supply of vacant or underutilized housing units, there’s also thousands of short-term rental units (i.e. Airbnb) which have literally removed housing from our available stock. Enterprising operators have seized on this opportunity for passive green by taking houses from long-term residents and converting them into ghost hotels for tourists instead.

Data from September 2024 show a total of 2,126 listings for an entire home rental on Airbnb in the city of Columbus. This figure increased from 2,019 in June of this year, which means 107 additional housing units are listed as short-term rentals in the city in just a few months. Contrary to what the short-term rental advocates would have you believe, most units are operated by entities with many listings. Of the 2,126 entire home listings in Columbus, 1,154 are owned by hosts with five or more listings in the city. And 317 are owned by hosts with at least 30 listings. The short-term rental industry has made a significant dent in the housing stock of Columbus, and has consolidated thousands of units to profit by withholding housing from locals.

The most prolific host on Columbus’ market appears to be Gibson & Hetherington (G&H), “a Luxury Brand that focuses on STR Property Management, Buying, Flipping and partnering with other real estate investors.” Their average nightly price is $195, compared to an overall average of $158 for the city. And both residents at the Harlow and Airbnb guests haven’t hesitated to leave negative Google reviews about their experiences.

Of the 72 registered listings operated by Gibson & Hetherington, some are located in The Harlow Apartments on Main Street.

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And why wouldn’t enterprising individuals take advantage of the opportunity to operate a short-term rental?

It’s an extraordinarily lucrative proposition. Without the obligations of a long-term lease, the potential for eviction proceedings, reduced liability and risk, hosts can make a killing.

Take a look at the details for an G&H listing priced at $164 per night with a $210.20 (what’s the twenty cents doing?) cleaning fee.

For the guest, the total for one night comes to $446.11. The host keeps the nightly fee and the cleaning fee, a total of $374.20. For the purpose of demonstrating how lucrative this passive income stream is, let’s ignore the cleaning fee and use just the average nightly price to compare potential monthly revenue from short-term rentals to the average monthly rent of an apartment in Columbus: $1,300 (according to RentCafe).

Consider the situation that a short-term rental is booked for just 10 nights per month at the average nightly price of $158. Not including cleaning fees, the unit could bring in $1,580 per month.

Number of nights per month		30 nights	20 nights	10 nights
Average nightly price	$158	$4,740	$3,160	$1,580
20% reduction	$126	$3,780	$2,520	$1,260

Why be a landlord—with a pesky long-term lease—when you can be a short-term rental host instead and make just about the same amount of passive income with just 10 nights rented per month? Even when considering a 20% reduction in revenue to account for fixed costs like utilities, hosts can essentially earn the same amount with 10 nights of short-term rentals as an entire month of a long-term rental. The data shows that many hosts have found this to be a profitable opportunity, with the number of listings in Columbus continuing to grow.

The map below indicates significant clusters of Airbnb listings downtown neighborhoods—the same neighborhoods that are already under redevelopment pressure.

Imagine if all the orange dots on this map were long-term tenants instead of short-term visitors. Some neighborhood leaders have also appealed to the city by demonstrating short-term rentals have been used to host gatherings that lead to crime, including homicide.

Note significant clusters of Airbnb listings in downtown neighborhoods. Imagine if all the orange dots on this map were long-term tenants instead of short-term visitors. Source: Inside Airbnb

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What is to be done? Two recommendations.

#1 — On the first count, vacant or underutilized housing units, public policy could more aggressively target vacant housing as a nuisance.

Property owners could be fined, and properties could eventually end up in court. Then, delinquent properties could be deeded to the Central Ohio Community Land Trust for redevelopment or simple transition into non-market rate housing in perpetuity. This all requires empowering the public sector to enforce vacancy law and receive private property.

Moving in this policy direction would also help curb the vile practice of speculation, where property owners retain underutilized (including vacant and abandoned) properties in hopes of cashing out in the future with a hefty profit—deteriorating the community in the process. Money should be earned through work, not waiting.

#2 — On the second count, short-term rentals, it’s simple: ban them.

In particular, ban the short-term rental of units that are not within the host’s primary residence. This move would course-correct the grotesque mutation of short-term rentals from their original genesis as part of the sharing economy into their current iteration of ghost hotels.

Some Ohio House Republicans want to entirely prevent cities from regulating short-term rentals. House Bill 563, which passed the State & Local Government Committee in 2022 with significant opposition from Ohio local elected officials. Supporting the legislation are out-of-state free-market think tanks, like the conservative Koch-funded Mercatus Center at George Mason University and Americans for Prosperity—also funded by the Koch brothers.

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Don’t let supply dominate the housing discourse

Some supply-focused critics may read this email with incredulity. Nonetheless, supply is absolutely essential. Where housing is built is also essential. Take for example the extreme depopulation of central city Columbus, with at least 60,000 fewer people living in core urban neighborhoods today than in 1960. While ‘Zone In’ has taken a major step toward repopulating our hollowed-out communities, there is still much to be done to rebuild the lost vitality sapped by overbuilding highways and demolishing historic neighborhoods.

One point of encouragement is that the new Accessory Dwelling Unit pilot in the City of Columbus does not allow ADUs to be used as short-term rentals. Ostensibly this is because one goal of the pilot is to improve housing affordability, and creating more Airbnbs obviously won’t help that.

The long and short of it is that supply alone is no silver bullet.

The reductive logic of supply and demand does not apply to housing when it is bought and held as a lucrative financial investment by commercial enterprises, REITs, and landlords. There are many more considerations to stabilizing the housing market and improving housing outcomes than simply building more units.

*Special note: No generative artificial intelligence or AI was used in the writing or creation of this content. Maybe that makes you more suspicious than if I hadn’t mentioned it…but believe me!